英语文摘：Global recovery gains strength, but challenges remain: World Bank

The World Bank noted that the global recovery has gained strength, matured and broadened to include more countries and more components of demand. This dynamic appears to be well established, particularly among developing countries.

As a result, concerns of a double-dip recession have eased. However, the recovery remains exposed to significant short and long-term risks that could derail it.

Justin Yifu Lin said that there are three major risks that are threatening the global recovery.

The first risk lies in the financial turmoil in high-income countries, especially in the eurozone.

The report said market concerns about fiscal sustainability and the crisis resolution system in the euro area intensified once again in the final quarter of 2010, as Ireland became the second euro-area state to receive external financial support from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

"To date, however, calm has not been restored to the markets," noted the report.

The second risk is that how to deal with surging capital inflows in the developing countries.

"The pickup in international capital flows reinforces the recovery in most developing countries," said Hans Timmer, director of development prospects at the World Bank. "However, heavy inflows to certain big middle-income economies may carry risks and threaten medium-term recovery, especially if currency values rise suddenly or if asset bubbles emerge."

The third risk, as Lin pointed out, is food crisis.

According to the report, current relatively high food prices are having a mixed impact on low-income countries.

"However, double-digit price increases of key staples in the past few months are pressuring households in countries with an already-existing high burden of poverty and malnutrition. And, if global food prices rise further along with other key commodities, a repeat of the conditions in 2008 cannot be excluded," cautioned Andrew Burns, manager of Global Macroeconomics in the World Bank's Prospects Group.

In dealing with those risks and challenges, the World Bank suggested that for the high-income countries, policies should be taken to restore market confidence by implementing credible fiscal consolidation packages that support structural reform and conclude the financial-sector reform agenda to avoid future crisis.

For the developing countries, in general, the macroeconomic policy needs to tighten.