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The pattern of growth that is emerging this year -- a mediocre first half followed by a weaker second half -- is the reverse of what most forecasts showed at the beginning of the year, said the report.
"We now believe the economic weakness in the U.S. will likely worsen," Kenneth Chenault, chief executive of American Express Co., was quoted as saying last month when his bank posted second-quarter earnings short of analyst estimates.
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A shopper browses the bread section at a Wal-Mart store in Santa Clarita, California April 1, 2008. |
Households are grappling with layoffs, stagnant wages, falling home values and tighter credit.
The U.S. government's economic-stimulus program, which was intended to give households a boost in the middle of the year, may not have done enough to stave off recession, said the report.
The payments coincided with a run-up in fuel prices, so a portion of the checks were gobbled up at the gas pump. So far, most of the money appears to have gone to savings and debt rather than to immediate spending in stores, the report added.
"We are on the cusp of a renewed deceleration in growth," Goldman Sachs economists were quoted as saying, noting that a contraction in consumer spending is likely over the second half of this year and that "the risk that foreign-demand weakness will wash back onto U.S. shores is clearly growing."