Andy Jarvis has been using computer models to study how climate change will affect the world’s 50 most important crops. Jarvis spoke with EarthSky from his office at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture in Colombia. He said that previous studies have focused primarily on just wheat, corn and rice.
Andy Jarvis: The food security on a global level (is) depends on a lot more than those three big crops. You know, you’ve got things like barley, sorghum, soybeans, and things like sugar cane. Here in Latin America you’ve got coffee, for example.
Jarvis is a geographer. He’s been using data on rainfall, growing season and temperature – plus existing climate models – to figure out which crops will grow where as climate change progresses in this century. He spoke, for example, about Africa’s Sahel region.
Andy Jarvis: These are some of the hottest areas of the world and so they lose a lot of options. And they are almost...Our models are showing it’s almost left really with the option of growing millet, which is again used as an animal feed.
He said elsewhere in Africa, increased rainfall might allow cash crops, like tea and strawberries. And he reminded us that the impacts of climate change are likely to vary around the globe.
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